Elections in Nicaragua 6 November 2011

Nicaraguan elections: why the Sandinistas won so overwhelmingly  16/11/11

Elections took place in Nicaragua on 6 November for the presidency, National Assembly and Nicaraguan members of the Central American parliament.  The result was a landslide victory for the Sandinistas with over 60 per cent of the vote in both presidential and National Assembly elections.

What were the results of the presidential elections? FSLN-led “United Nicaragua Will triumph” Alliance: Daniel Ortega 62.46%; PLC (Constitutionalist Liberal Party Alliance): Arnoldo Alemán 5.91%; PLI (Independent Liberal Party Alliance): Fabio Gadea 31%

What were the results of the National Assembly elections? These followed a similar pattern to those for the presidency. This means that the FSLN will have 62 seats, the PLI alliance 26, and the PLC two. The FSLN will have sufficient seats to pass legislation including changes to the constitution without support from other parties.

What was the turn out? The head of the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) Roberto Rivas announced that the voter turnout was between 78% and 80%. This reflects the political awareness of Nicaraguans, the huge number of young people who voted for the first time, and the value Nicaraguans place on the significance of their votes. As blogger John Perry explains, ‘Voting is seen as a patriotic duty and not to vote is shameful.’

Why did the Sandinistas win so convincingly? Nicaragua is the second poorest country in the Americas after Haiti which means that around 50% of the population live in poverty. Economic stability and extensive social programmes have had a widespread impact on those excluded and ignored by previous governments. It is logical that over 60% of the electorate should have voted for a party that has succeeded in improving their lives.   

Despite the global recession, the government’s economic policies and higher prices on the world market for Nicaragua’s exports resulted in economic growth in 2010 of 4.5%. In the same period exports rose by 32%. In 2011 the economy is on track for 4% growth and has received record amounts of foreign investment. The government’s economic programmes include incentives for national and foreign investment particularly in the Free Trade Zones, infrastructure projects and agro-industry to ensure that more stages in food processing can be undertaken in Nicaragua.  The volume of exports to existing markets – the US, Canada, other Central America countries and Mexico - has increased. Most significantly, trade with Venezuela as part of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of our America (ALBA) has risen from US$2m in 2006 to $248m in 2010. 

In addition, ‘Nicaragua has benefited from the most ingenious innovation in development financing of the 21st Century’ according to presidential advisor Paul Oquist.  Venezuela sells oil to Nicaragua at market prices. However, 50% of the value of the oil is converted into a 25 year loan at 2% interest. Nicaragua invests this money in infrastructural projects – roads, energy – and social and economic development programmes. The other 50%, that Nicaragua has to pay in 90 days, can be paid in cash or in the export of meat, sugar, coffee and beans.  ALBA funded social programmes that have benefited hundreds of thousands of Nicaraguans include projects for rural development, housing, micro credit for women, bonuses for low paid state sector workers, subsidised transport, electricity and food. Sixty-five thousand Nicaraguans have benefited from free eye operations carried out by Cuban doctors. Health care and education are now free to all. The much improved transport infrastructure, power generation and electrification programmes have benefited all Nicaraguans.

The comments of Vallejos Urbina and Gseñia Salazar Mora reflect some of the reasons for the Sandinista landslide. Vellejos who lives in an informal squatter settlement in Managua stated: “What we want is that the government prioritizes our houses, our streets, our communities.” Her family is one of the 136,000 families that have benefited from a government land titles programmes which will mean access to public services. Gseñia cited Liberals who voted for Daniel Ortega:  “My mother and father have always been Liberals. But my mother received an interest-free loan from the government to start a small business and a free cataract operation. These are big things, and she voted for Daniel because she feels appreciative.”

How have opposition parties reacted? The day after the elections Fabio Gadea, the PLI Alliance presidential candidate stated “We cannot accept the results presented by the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) because they do not reflect the will of the people … We will not recognize the results of this fraud of enormous proportions.”  Opposition civil society groups such as Ethics and Transparency, the Institute for Development and Democracy (IPADE), the  Permanent Commission on Human Rights (CPDH), and others complained about the alleged illegitimacy of Daniel Ortega’s candidacy, “the manipulation of the voter lists, discrimination in the issuing of voter cards, lack of transparency, and refusal to accredit observers”... The PLI and some civil society groups have called on people to take to the streets in protest.  In response, there have been localised protests some of which have turned into violent clashes between PLI and Sandinista supporters resulting in four deaths - three PLI and one Sandinista – and injuries to 47 police officers. However, most Nicaraguans have returned to their everyday lives.

What are the findings of observer delegations?

Latin American Council of Electoral Experts (CEELA): Forty observers spent two months in Nicaragua prior to the elections during which time they visited 95 out of the 153 municipalities. Head of the delegation Nicanor Moscoso stated that the high number of observers and witnesses from all parties participating in the elections and the care taken by election officials in polling stations guaranteed the security of the vote. Moscoso pointed out that the process is laid down in the electoral law and this is what happened in practice. He went on to state, “you have the constant presence of party scrutineers at all stages, something that I haven’t seen in other Latin America countries.” …You have self regulation and we have been fortunate to accompany this experience.”

European Union: On 9 November the head of the EU delegation Luis Yáñez issued a preliminary report which listed concerns about the transparency and competency of Nicaragua’s the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE). While acknowledging that the election itself passed peacefully the delegation complained that the whole process was directed by authorities who are not independent and did not ensure transparency for all parties.” However, Yáñez went on “Fraud is saying the person who lost won and the person who won lost. In this case, it is beyond doubt that the Sandinista Front and Mr Ortega won the elections.” The CSE responded by accusing Yáñez of defending PLI presidential candidate Fabio Gadea and being “provocative and disrespectful to the people of Nicaragua.”  

The Organisation of American States (OAS) issued a press release on 15 November that highlighted “situations of concern that indicate the need for quick action by the authorities" in the future; and "a series of events that had very serious effects" on their duties of Accompaniment. The delegation proposed three recommendations to improve the Nicaraguan electoral system.  However, the press release confirmed that the controls their election accompaniment mission had put in place to monitor the outcome produced "similar results" to those issued by the Supreme Electoral Council.

What has the reaction been from the US? Even before the elections, former US ambassador to Nicaragua Robert Callahan writing for the ultra right Heritage Foundation stated “the US should be prepared to challenge the legitimacy of the elections and potentially cut future economic assistance” and “vote against loans to Nicaragua from international lending institutions.” Callahan was the right hand man to John Negroponte, US ambassador to Honduras in the 1980s. Negroponte was responsible for running illegal military operations to oust the Sandinistas.  Currently, the US has no ambassador in Nicaragua because the Senate Foreign Relations Committee has blocked an Obama appointee, Jonathan Farrar, because of his criticisms of Cuban dissidents in his previous post.  Julissa Reynoso, the US State Department’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Central America, expressed her government’s “deep, deep disappointment” in the Sandinista government, and called the state of democracy in Nicaragua “sad news.”

Nicaragua Solidarity Campaign 15/11/11    www.nicaraguasc.org.uk

Early results give Sandinistas a resounding lead in the elections. 7/11/11

With 15.9% of the votes counted, the Sandinistas look set for an even more substantial victory in the elections than indicated in the polls. The results so far are:

PLC    6.27%     (Arnoldo Aleman)

FSLN  63.95%  (Daniel Ortega)       

ALN   0.46%     (Enrique Quinonez)

APRE 0.4%       (Roger Guevara)

PLI      29.09%   (Fabio Gadea) 

The popularity of the FSLN is testament to the government’s handling of the economy and social programmes that have succeeded in addressing Nicaragua’s deep problems of poverty where previous governments have failed. According to the World Bank, poverty in Nicaragua, the second poorest country in the hemisphere after Haiti, has dropped from 65.5% to 57% since 2005.

The opposition claims of widespread fraud do not appear to be corroborated by international election observers. According to BBC reports, the head of the mission from the Organisation of American States, Dante Caputo, reported no "significant irregularities", but called on the authorities to thoroughly investigate all complaints. Head of the European Union mission, Luis Yanez, commented that the polls had taken place "in a climate of normality and tranquillity".

Nicaraguan elections: why the Sandinistas are leading in the polls. See article below.

Nicaragua Solidarity Campaign briefing:  October 2011. Follows the article.

'On Christianity, socialism and solidarity : an interview with Johnny Hodgson'  >>

For information about the 2006 elections go to our archive >>

Nicaraguan elections: why the Sandinistas are leading in the polls. Oct 31st 2011

Polls in Nicaragua over the past six months have consistently indicated a first round victory for Daniel Ortega in the presidential elections of 6 November. The latest CID Gallup poll conducted between 10 – 17 October puts Daniel Ortega on 48 percent with the nearest challenger Fabio Gadea a distant second with 30 percent.

Bereft of other means of undermining a likely Sandinista victory, the right in the US is gearing up to declaring the elections fraudulent as an excuse for pushing for aid to be cut and other forms of aggression. This aggression is not only directed against Nicaragua but also their most significant target Venezuela where presidential elections are due in October 2012.

A Wall Street journal article of 31 October declared ‘Ortega Won't Let Go of Nicaragua’ claiming that he [Ortega] is ‘running for president in defiance of the constitution and the US is worried about election fraud.’

A Miami Herald article of 24 October by Glenn Garvin entitled ‘Ortega unchained: Nicaragua heads for disaster’ bemoans the opposition’s inability to unite to defeat the Sandinistas. Writing in a similar vein for the ultra right Heritage Foundation, former US ambassador to Nicaragua Robert Callahan speculates that Daniel Ortega may “resort to electoral fraud on a massive scale.” He adds, “the US should be prepared to challenge the legitimacy of the elections and potentially cut future economic assistance” and “vote against loans to Nicaragua from international lending institutions.” Callahan was the right hand man to John Negroponte, US ambassador to Honduras in the 1980s. Negroponte was responsible for running illegal military operations to oust the Sandinistas.  

Following this article, right wing Cuban - American congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen chair of the US House of Representatives Foreign Relations Committee, called on the US State Department to condemn the candidacy of Daniel Ortega ‘for manipulating democratic institutions and claiming that the “flagrant disrespect for the law by Ortega is in harmony with other despots like [Hugo] Chavez and the Castro brothers.”  Ros – Lehtinen went on to praise Senator Bob Menendez and Senator Marco Rubio for blocking Senate approval of Obama’s nominee as ambassador to Nicaragua, Jonathan Farrar. Anti-Cuba forces are opposed to Farrar because they complain that he did not help Cuban dissidents enough at his previous posting as head of the US Interests Section in Havana.

So what is the real reason the Sandinistas are likely to win the elections? Despite the global recession, the government’s economic policies and higher prices on the world market for Nicaragua’s exports resulted in economic growth in 2010 of 4.5%. In the same period exports rose by 32% over the previous year according to Paul Oquist, policy advisor to President Ortega. This policy includes providing incentives for national and foreign capital to invest particularly in the Free Trade Zones, infrastructure projects and agro-industry to ensure that more stages in food processing can be undertaken in Nicaragua so that the country receives the benefit of the value added.  The volume of exports to existing markets – the US, Canada, other Central America countries and Mexico - has increased. Most significantly, trade with Venezuela as part of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of our America (ALBA) has increased from US$2m in 2006 to $248m in 2010. 

In addition, ‘Nicaragua has benefited from the most ingenious innovation in development financing of the 21st Century’ according to advisor to the Nicaraguan presidency Paul Oquist.  Venezuelan sells oil to Nicaragua at market prices. However, 50% of the value of the oil is converted into a 25 year loan at 2% interest. Nicaragua invests this money in infrastructural projects – roads, energy – and social and economic development programmes. The other 50%, that Nicaragua has to pay in 90 days, can be paid in cash or in the export of products such as meat, sugar, coffee and beans.  ALBA funded social programmes that have benefited hundreds of thousands of Nicaraguans include projects for rural development, housing, micro credit for women, bonuses for low paid public workers, subsidised transport, electricity and food. Sixty-five thousand Nicaraguans have benefited from free eye operations carried out by Cuba doctors. In addition, health care and education is now free to all.

No previous government has ever achieved so much in a relatively short period in terms of addressing Nicaragua’s problems of poverty. The real threat to US interests in the region: is countries coming together with Latin America solutions to Latin American problems by putting into practice a political and social model based on solidarity that addresses the deeply ingrained problems of exclusion and poverty. 

Nicaragua Solidarity Campaign briefing:  October 2011

Sandinistas lead in election polls

After 16 years of right wing governments, the Sandinistas (FSLN) returned to power in 2007 with the election of Daniel Ortega as president.  The next elections will take place on 6 November for the Presidency, the National Assembly and the Nicaraguan members of the Central American Parliament.

What has the Sandinista government achieved in the past four years? Despite the global recession, the economic policies of the government and higher prices on the world market for Nicaragua’s exports resulted in economic growth in 2010 of 4.5%. In the same period exports rose by 32% over the previous year according to Paul Oquist, policy advisor to President Ortega. This policy includes providing incentives for national and foreign capital to invest particularly in the Free Trade Zones, infrastructure projects and agro-industry to ensure that more stages in food processing can be undertaken in Nicaragua so that the country receives the benefit of the value added.  The volume of exports to existing markets – the US, Canada, other Central America countries and Mexico - has increased. Most significantly, trade with Venezuela as part of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of our America (ALBA) has increased from US$2m in 2006 to $248m in 2010.  

How does the ALBA fair trade agreement with Venezuela work? Venezuela sells its oil to Nicaragua and Nicaragua pays the market price but 50% of the value of the oil is converted into a 25 year loan at 2% interest. Nicaragua invests this money in infrastructural projects – roads, energy – and social and economic development programmes. The other 50%, that Nicaragua has to pay in 90 days, can be paid in cash or in the export of products such as meat, sugar, coffee and beans.   ALBA funded social programmes that have benefited hundreds of thousands of Nicaraguans include  programmes for rural development, housing, micro credit for women, bonuses for low paid public workers, subsidised transport, electricity  and food, and the first ever census of people with disabilities.  Sixty-five thousand Nicaraguans have benefited from free eye operations carried out by Cuba doctors. In addition, health care and education is now free to all. No previous government has ever achieved so much in a relatively short period in terms of addressing Nicaragua’s   problems of poverty.

What are the main parties that will be standing and who are their presidential candidates? 

FSLN-led “United Nicaragua will triumph” alliance: Daniel Ortega

PLC (Constitutionalist Liberal Party alliance): Arnoldo Alemán

PLI (Independent Liberal Party Alliance): Fabio Gadea

ALN (Nicaragua Liberal Alliance): Enrique Quiñónez

APRE (Alliance for the Republic): Miguel Garcia

Why is the candidature of Daniel Ortega controversial?  A constitutional amendment approved in 1995, and supported by the opposition FSLN at the time, prohibits the president and mayors from serving two consecutive terms or more than two terms in total. This would have prevented two -time president Daniel Ortega ever running for the presidency again. However, in 2010, Ortega and 110 mayors challenged this clause as a violation of their rights as citizens, a similar manoeuvre to that which enabled Oscar Arias to stand again in presidential elections in Costa Rica. An amendment to remove all limits on re-election was rejected by the Nicaraguan National Assembly but upheld by the Supreme Court.

What criticisms have been levelled against the government?  The allegations made by some civil society organisations and opposition parties have been the stifling of political debate, the domination of the FSLN over state institutions including the judiciary, the paternalistic implementation of some ALBA programmes, and the failure of the government to reverse the 2006 ban on therapeutic abortion.

If the elections happened tomorrow which party would be the likely winner? According to the latest CID-Gallup poll carried out from 10 to 16 September, 62.5% of Nicaraguans consider that ‘things in the country are going in a positive direction.’  45.8% of those polled indicated they would vote for Daniel Ortega, 33.5% for Fabio Gadea with Arnoldo Aleman a distant third on 10.1%. If voting on polling day follows the same pattern it would mean that   Ortega would win re-election without a runoff because he would have more than 35% of the vote and a five point advantage over the next candidate. 

Is there any party that represents a credible challenge to the FSLN alliance? One significant difference from the 2006 elections is that the opposition is more divided, splitting the vote.  Despite being largely discredited as a result of the major corruption scandals linked to his time as President (1996 - 2002), the PLC presidential candidate Arnold Alemán has always maintained good relations with grass roots supporters. However, the PLC is much debilitated after a series of internal divisions.

An added difficulty for opposition parties will be that their scaremongering of previous election campaigns has failed to materialise: the FSLN government has not spent the last five years fighting with the US or the business sector and the economy, far from being in a state of collapse that the opposition predicted, is actually growing. 

What is the goal of the FSLN in terms of National Assembly seats? Since 2007 the FSLN has held 38 out of 92 seats in the National Assembly which has meant that they have not been able to pass legislation without the support of other parties. This time their aim is to win not just the Presidency, but also 50 or more seats in the National Assembly.

Will there be international  election observers? The Nicaraguan Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) has insisted that observation by national and international organisations be considered  ‘accompaniment.’ On 24 September the US Embassy released a statement  claiming that  the CSE rules for ‘accompaniment’ impede credible election observation. However, the  European Union confirmed at the beginning of September that it had reached an agreement with the CSE  to send around 80 observers.   EU representative Mendel Goldstein confirmed that “I believe that all the conditions exist  to put together an accord on our participation in the process” including free movement of the accompaniers, access to all participants in the electoral process on election day.” At the end of September, Jose Miguel Insulza, Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), signed an accord with the government to send 80 observers. Insulza said the team would observe the voting throughout the country but “there will be no interference on our part” in Nicaragua’s internal affairs. He also stated that he was confident that the elections would proceed peacefully.

Nicaragua Solidarity Campaign, 86 Durham Rd, London N7 7DT
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