Many good things are happening in Nicaragua. This is mostly
absent from mainstream news coverage. The economy is stable, growing at over
4 per cent a year, and coping better with the world wide recession than its'
neighbours. Exports are at record highs. Inward investment is booming. So
far, so neo-liberal. What sets it apart are the social programmes in place
to redistribute resources to the poorest.
To name a few examples. The Roof Plan aims to improve the
houses of 250,000 families. 150,000 have received corrugated iron and nails
already. The Plan is funded by ALBA.Z ero Hunger, which has been covered in
previous newsletters, is on target. It will support 75,000 families over
five years to help them enter the rural economy. $150 million is being
spent, in the form of animals, seeds, a bio-digester and training and
advice. Funding comes from the ALBA and bilateral and multilateral agencies.
A similar model is being used for Zero Usury. 80,000 women
are receiving small loans (about $200) in a micro-credit scheme to help set
up small business. ALBA and other countries have provided the finance. ALBA
is also supporting the re-paving of roads in the Streets for the People
programme, and funds new homes in the Houses for the People. This is not to
mention the spectacular cutting of adult illiteracy, and the steady gains in
health and education provision.
Nicaragua is also investing in larger projects. A refinery
has been promised. The roads to the Caribbean Coast have been improved. The
electricity cuts which plagued the last government have been eliminated.
There is also a long term plan to reduce the country's reliance on oil for
electricity production.
Against this has to be set the worrying attitude of the FSLN
to criticism. Their rhetoric appears to be you are either for us or against
us. They reserve their harshest words for those somewhere in the middle. The
intolerance shown to critics, particularly in the women's movement, is less
than it was during our last visit in 2009. But the leadership of the FSLN
has stretched the constitution to breaking point with the nomination for
re-election of Daniel Ortega (who was accepted as a candidate by the Supreme
Electoral Council while we were in the country).
Many argue this has been canny politics by Ortega and his
inner circle. The National Assembly failed to nominate new judges and
Electoral Council magistrates. Ortega then issued a decree to keep the old
ones in place (who were favourable to Ortega's standing again). He used a
challenge similar to the one used by Oscar Arias in Costa Rica a couple of
years ago. He challenged the ban on re-election for two consecutive terms,
and the ban on anyone holding the Presidency for more than two terms
altogether. He successfully claimed this violated his right to be treated
equally with other individuals in Nicaragua. As more than one critic on the
Left told us, Ortega's decision to run again and the court's decision to
allow this drive a horse and coach through the Constitution, and undermine
institutionality.
The current political situation favours a FSLN victory. One
group on the Left, the MRS, have thrown in their lot with Right to run in a
Coalition against the FSLN. This probably is a grave error by the MRS. They
will derive little long term benefit. Another on the Left, Rescate, will be
calling for a boycott of the election. For those who oppose the FSLN because
of their lack of respect for the constitution, this seems a more principled
stand. Some of the women's movement have been openly calling to join the MRS
in the opposition, which would not only split the movement, but further
worsen their relations with the government.
If some on the Left are split, the Right is even more
divided. There will be no less than four groups or parties standing against
the Frente Sandinista. The first, led by the PLC, will again have Arnoldo
Aleman as their Presidential candidate. Remembered by most as the President
who pocketed $100 million during his term in office, the allegations haven't
gone away. The second group is led by Fabio Gadea, a 78 year old who has
spent most of his political life propping up Aleman. He will be joined on
the ticket by a MRS candidate for the Vice Presidency. The other groups are
likely to make no headway, other than to take some votes away from the two
other Right wing candidates.
Despite the maneouvering, it is worth emphasising again that
the thing that is most likely to deliver another victory for the Sandinistas
is their social programmes. In El Lagartillo, a very rural community on the
Pacific Coast, is a Sandinista stronghold. They have benefited from power
lines, street lighting, micro-credit for women and the re-activation of the
peasant economy. On the Caribbean Coast, far from being Sandinista
territory, remote communities in and around Pearl Lagoon have had
electricity for the first time.
Some within the solidarity movement have started debating
whether we should support the Frente again. There are several reasons for
not doing so. The first is the worrying signs the party displays over the
constitution and institutionality. In the long term these will do no favours
both to the Frente and to the country. The second reason is that our
solidarity, at least since 1990, has been with the Nicaraguan people,
whatever the stripe of the government.
But at least two things are clear. Firstly, it looks likely
that the FSLN will win the elections in November, and will increase their
vote. Given their commitment to the poor, and their careful stewardship of
the economy, this is hardly surprising. Secondly, if solidarity groups do
not support the FSLN, they should have no hesitation in saying that in the
elections in November a victory for the Sandinistas is the best result for
the country and the majority of its citizens, especially the poorest.
